Bitcoin May Be Near Cycle Bottom, K33 Research Warns
K33 says over half of Bitcoin's supply is held at a loss, a historically reliable signal that a cycle bottom is close.
Bitcoin could be approaching a major cycle bottom, according to new research from K33, which found that more than half of the cryptocurrency's circulating supply is currently held at a loss — a rare threshold that has historically preceded significant price recoveries.
K33's analysis shows that whenever this metric has been triggered in past market cycles, Bitcoin has tended to find its floor within a matter of weeks. The research firm noted that strong one-year returns have followed in most of those previous instances, suggesting the current pain point for holders may be relatively short-lived.
Read more Luxshare Raises $3.1 Billion in Hong Kong's Largest IPO of 2025 →
The finding carries weight because it reflects genuine on-chain behavior rather than sentiment surveys or technical chart patterns. When a majority of coins in circulation are underwater, it signals broad capitulation — a condition that veteran crypto analysts often associate with exhausted selling pressure and the early stages of a market reset.
Still, analysts caution that historical patterns are not guarantees. Each Bitcoin cycle has unfolded against a different macroeconomic backdrop, and outside forces — from Federal Reserve policy to regulatory shifts — can delay or alter the typical recovery timeline. K33's data offers a hopeful framework, but investors should weigh it alongside a full picture of current market conditions.
Continue reading at Cointelegraph
